When "Flour is Pricier Than Bread": The Jadeite Speculation Crisis

When “Flour is Pricier Than Bread”: The Jadeite Speculation Crisis

Introduction

Between 2009–2010, Myanmar’s jadeite rough auctions saw prices skyrocket by 15,000%, with speculators—not artisans—dominating bids, creating what became known as the jadeite speculation bubble. Professor Michelle Au dissects this unsustainable “flour > bread” phenomenon (where raw materials outprice finished goods) and its lasting damage to the jade ecosystem.

1. The Speculation Bubble: Key Drivers

1.1 New Buyer Profiles

“Coal Tycoons”: Chinese industrialists stockpiling rough as “hard assets.”
Diamond Traders: Shifting to jadeite for higher margins (5% → 200% profits).
Retail Speculators: Paying 50M RMB for ice-grade bangle rough—then reselling unprocessed.

1.2 Price Escalation (2001–2010)

Year	Price/kg (RMB)	Trigger
2001	10,000	Baseline
2008	400,000	Beijing Olympics luxury boom
2010	1,500,000	Speculative capital influx

The jadeite speculation bubble of 2009-2010 represented one of the most extreme commodity surges in recent history, with raw stone values increasing 150-fold in just one year.

2. Market Distortions

2.1 The “Middleman Merry-Go-Round”

70% of premium rough circulated among dealers—only 30% reached consumers.
Case Study: A Taiwanese merchant sold a 1M RMB bangle in 2008, only to find its replacement cost 5M RMB by 2010.

2.2 Consumer Backlash

Psychological Threshold: “Ice” bangles priced at 500K RMB deterred 90% of buyers.
Substitution Effect: Collectors shifted to sapphires/antique jade.

3. The Fallout & Lessons

3.1 2012 Correction

-40% Price Drop: Speculators offloaded stocks, revealing true demand.
Survivors: Traditional workshops with pre-2008 inventory.

3.2 Sustainable Practices

Certify Origins: Blockchain tracking for rough-to-retail journeys.
Price Anchoring: Tie retail prices to labor + 30% margin, not auction hype.
Educate New Buyers: Warn against “get-rich-quick” jade schemes.

Source: Ouyang, Q. (2010). When Rough Outprices Polished: Jadeite’s Speculation Crisis. China Gems & Jades,124–127.

「麵粉貴過麵包」：翡翠投機泡沫的警示

引言

2009–2010年，緬甸翡翠原石拍賣價暴漲150倍，投機客（而非玉雕師）主導市場。歐陽秋眉教授解析這場「原料價＞成品價」的畸形現象及其對產業的長期傷害。

1. 泡沫成因

1.1 新買家類型

「煤老闆」：將原石作為「硬資產」囤積。
鑽石商：轉戰翡翠追求暴利（利潤率5%→200%）。
零售投機者：以5000萬人民幣競標冰種手鐲料後，直接轉售牟利。

1.2 價格飆升（2001–2010）

年份	每公斤價格（人民幣）	導火線
2001	1萬	基準線
2008	40萬	北京奧運奢侈品熱
2010	150萬	熱錢湧入

2. 市場扭曲現象

2.1 「中間商擊鼓傳花」

70%高端原料在商家間流轉，僅30%到達終端消費者。
案例：台灣商人2008年以100萬售出手鐲，2010年同級貨進價已達500萬。

2.2 消費者抵制

心理門檻：50萬人民幣的「冰鐲」嚇退90%買家。
替代效應：藏家轉向藍寶石/古董翡翠。

3. 泡沫破裂與啟示

3.1 2012年修正

價格暴跌40%：投機者拋售庫存，真實需求浮現。
生存者：持有2008年前庫存的傳統工坊。

3.2 永續經營之道

溯源認證：區塊鏈追蹤原料到成品的歷程。
定價錨定：零售價應基於工藝成本＋30%利潤，而非拍賣炒作。
買家教育：警惕「翡翠暴利」話術。

資料來源：歐陽秋眉（2010），無價的石頭——「麵粉比麵包貴」對翡翠市場的影響，《中國寶石與玉石》，124–127。

When “Flour is Pricier Than Bread”: The Jadeite Speculation Crisis